Rather than the usual quick preamble, I’d like to take a second to highlight something before jumping into the mailbag. This month is PHR’s tenth anniversary of being in operation. We’re technically still a couple of days away from the 10-year mark of our full official launch (that comes Monday) but we passed the 10-year mark of our soft launch last weekend. As a Day One writer here at the site, I want to say thank you to all of our readers and fellow writers for helping PHR continue to grow.
Now, onto the questions. If yours doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two mailbag columns.
rayk: If the top three Fs are taken before the 4th pick in the 2026 draft, would Chicago possibly be better off moving down a few slots and getting another pick? They could still could get a highly-rated d-man plus an extra asset. Why/how is trading up and getting overcharged a better approach? Thanks.
From a straight asset valuation standpoint, you’re right. If the Blackhawks have a few defensemen rated similarly and are okay with taking one, they could drop a couple of spots if either the Rangers or Flames wanted to move up to get one and pick up something extra for doing so. But that’s only if Chicago thinks the blueliners are largely interchangeable and if New York or Calgary felt otherwise. Chances are the latter is true but odds being odds, one of the defensemen stands out the rest on Chicago’s draft board.
It wouldn’t be right to say that Chicago wouldn’t have a need for the second-round pick or whatever asset they’d get to move down a couple of spots. But because of the depth they’ve amassed, they may not attach as much value to that as you might think they should. And that might ultimately result in them not trading down if the draft goes that way; they’d probably just take the best defenseman available in their eyes and go from there.
As for paying a high price to trade up if they really want a forward, the Blackhawks are in a spot where they can afford to do so. They have a deep prospect pool and an emerging core group of youngsters on the NHL roster. They can afford to deal from their surplus to find a better fit with that core group if there’s a deal to be made without it drastically affecting their overall system. And if they think that one of the forwards is so much of a better fit than the defenseman, the trade-up becomes defensible, even if it comes at a steep price.
FeeltheThunder: Who do you believe Tampa might consider targeting in the UFA and/or RFA markets? I was thinking they could pursue someone like Mason Marchment to add a power forward element to their lineup, which is currently missing. Alternatively, they might explore submitting an offer sheet for a promising young talent like Mavrik Bourque.
I’m glad I pushed this one to the final mailbag from our most recent call for questions as Darren Raddysh going to Toronto really affects this answer. They badly need to land an impact right-shot defenseman in free agency. Those are John Carlson, Rasmus Andersson, and Jacob Trouba. And if they get one of them, more than half their cap space goes out the window and likely takes them out of going after someone like Marchment, who would certainly be a good fit for them. (Now, if they clear out a contract and open up cap space, that could change things but this is an as-things-stand answer.)
I noted recently in their Offseason Checklist that I think they should keep an eye on the UFA market for goalies. Yes, they have Jonas Johansson but if they can find an upgrade that only costs a bit more, it’s worth paying the extra money as it’s probably worth a few more points in the standings. There are better options than these three but Cam Talbot, David Rittich, and Vitek Vanecek might come in more at the incrementally higher price point that Julien BriseBois might be willing to pay.
Beyond those two, they’re probably down to more depth-type additions although if they want to make a swing, Patrik Laine can sign a one-year, bonus-laden deal and maybe help their power play. Eyeballing the right-shot options on the UFA list (since that’s a clear need up front), Jack Roslovic is one to keep an eye on. His market hasn’t materialized in two straight summers and if that happens again here, Tampa Bay feels like a great soft landing spot if they leave themselves wiggle room after July 1st. Noel Acciari giving them some grit and faceoff ability wouldn’t hurt in the bottom six either.
Tampa Bay’s ability to do offer sheets is rather limited. In terms of their 2027 picks, they don’t have control of their first-rounder and they don’t have their third-rounder, meaning they can only sign ones with no compensation or second-round compensation. That’s probably where Bourque lands but, again, with their biggest need now being a right-shot defender that will cost a big chunk of their $13MM or so in cap room per PuckPedia, I just don’t think they can afford him for the salary it’d take for Bourque to consider signing a sheet.
DonInStPete: How do you feel the Lightning’s prospect pool ranks?
Not very highly, to be honest. I like Sam O’Reilly, a player who seems like a very safe bet to make it as a third-line center, at a minimum and be a good secondary core player. Benjamin Rautiainen is coming off a breakout year so his stock is on the rise. Ethan Gauthier had a decent enough first pro season and Ethan Czata could be something. If Conor Geekie still qualifies since he hasn’t cracked the roster full-time yet, he should be part of the longer-term roster as well. I’m not entirely sold on Jack Pridham being a big point producer but at the price they paid to get him, that was a worthwhile attempt to try to add to the system.
But most of these players are complementary at best, not high-end pieces so it’s hard to give this system a high rating. It’s a byproduct of going for it year after year but the cost is that they have a pretty shallow pool overall.
Last offseason, Daily Faceoff’s Steven Ellis ranked the Lightning’s pool 30th overall. Back in March, Scott Wheeler of The Athletic ranked (subscription link) them 24th, with Geekie and Rautiainen’s big year likely moving that up a few spots. To properly assign them a number, I’d have to review all 32 prospect pools which would make this an incredibly long answer. But they’d be in or around the bottom five overall if I was ranking them all.
Schwa: What/who do you expect to be the biggest value asset traded this summer (pick, player, signing rights)?
What teams do you expect to be the most active (in actual moves not just kicking tires)?
It’s an easy answer but I think it’s still going to be the right one and that’s Dylan Larkin. With the suggestion that his camp has expanded the yes list, that should be enough for Detroit GM Steve Yzerman to drum up enough of a bidding war to land the type of return that Larkin is worth. While he’s not an elite top center, he’d still be the top pivot on quite a few teams and a high-end second option on others. There aren’t many pivots of that magnitude that get traded with five years left on their contracts so I have a hard time thinking that Larkin will be beat.
There isn’t a pending UFA whose signing rights would be worth more than Larkin and the only RFA who would have a similar valuation that has a chance to move is Jason Robertson. Robertson has the better numbers but Larkin plays the much more premium position so I’d still give Larkin the edge here in terms of the potential return in a swap. In terms of draft picks, there are rumblings about San Jose and Chicago being willing to move the second and fourth selections but those deals rarely happen. Maybe they wind up swapping with each other but that’s not going to be a trade of a higher magnitude.
In terms of the most active teams, I could see it being Toronto. John Chayka very quietly made a ton of trades in his time with the Coyotes. Some were big swings, some were tinkering moves, and some were really minor swaps. But if he saw a chance to make an incremental improvement, he took it. He has already made two big moves this month with the Joseph Woll trade and the Darren Raddysh acquisition. It looks like Morgan Rielly is going to move at some point, opening up more cap space to play with. We know they’re going to be center shopping and there is injury uncertainty with Max Domi. It’s not crazy to think there will be four or five more signings or trades to go along with the ones already made. Whether the Maple Leafs are demonstrably better when all is said and done remains to be seen but I expect their roster will certainly look different in the fall.
LA All Day: Could the Kings offseason possibly look like what they did at the trade deadline? One big move, a couple small buys and a couple soft sells?
If the big move comes in free agency, perhaps. I don’t think the Kings have the draft pick or prospect capital to take another big swing on the trade market, unless there’s another Artemi Panarin situation where the player makes it clear that they want to go to Los Angeles. They have over $18MM in cap room available per PuckPedia and while Brandt Clarke’s next contract will take a sizable chunk of that, there’s enough left to make a splash if a key free agent wants to go there.
How much is GM Ken Holland going to want to remake his roster this summer? If he believes in this group, he might think that bringing in Peter Laviolette behind the bench and changing their offensive system might be enough to kickstart things. That isn’t to say he’ll be complacent but it wouldn’t shock me if most of their roster activity was incremental.
On the small buy front, they need to do something at center. Re-signing Scott Laughton would help in the bottom six although it wouldn’t help fill Anze Kopitar’s shoes either. And on the soft sell front, I wonder about Joel Edmundson. Yes, he made it through 82 games this season but in a reduced role. If Laviolette wants more mobility on the back end, I think Edmundson’s contract ($3.85MM for two years) is movable once options start to dry up on the open market.
vincent k. mcmahon: Do the Blues make a trade to move in the draft or do you think they’ll stay put at 11, 15, and 29?
I know they were rumored to be interested in San Jose’s 2nd overall pick, and assuming they would potentially make that deal what do you see heading SJ’s way outside of the 11th or 15th overall pick?
I’m going to answer these out of order. I can’t see a scenario where the Sharks trade down from the second pick to the 11th. This is not like when GM Mike Grier first took over and did trade downs to add more picks to a thinned-out draft cupboard. They have a plethora of picks and prospects now; they don’t need quantity over quality. If they’re trading the second pick to the Blues, Robert Thomas is the player going the other way. And since it seems like St. Louis isn’t as open to the idea of moving him (and San Jose isn’t exactly looking for centers), it’s not going to happen. GM Alex Steen could offer all three first-rounders for the second pick and it wouldn’t be enough to justify the move for the Sharks.
I don’t expect the 11th or 15th picks to move. Because it looks like St. Louis is going to embrace some sort of retooling phase, they’re going to want to stay put with those selections. Maybe 29 gets dangled to move up a few spots if someone they really like slips but otherwise, I think they make their first two selections.
29 is a trickier call to make. That’s the part of the draft when we start to see more trade-downs and without the benefit of a second-rounder, I could see St. Louis moving down to an early second-rounder, adding another asset, and then trying to package some of their thirds to pick up another second-round pick. I could also see them moving the pick for a younger player scuffling with his current team but that the Blues think can rebound with them. I wouldn’t put really high odds on this but my guess is there’s a slightly better chance than not that they move 29.
jkumpire: From Frustrated CBJ Fan,
Is there actually going to be one UFA this summer that could make a difference to any non-playoff team this coming season? If Charlie Coyle was the #1 UFA center/offensive player on the board before he signed, that speaks volumes about the weakness of the UFA class this year.
There are definitely some difference-makers in free agency this year, just not the high-end elite players. While Coyle was the top center, I wouldn’t necessarily call him the top offensive player. That would go to Alex Tuch, a player who would fit on a lot of top lines across the NHL, if not be a high-end second liner. John Carlson has enough in the tank to be a short-term big upgrade on the blueline while Rasmus Andersson might not be a number one defender but he’s a definite difference-maker as well if he landed with a non-playoff team.
To name a player you’d be quite familiar with, I think Marchment is a difference-maker as well, albeit to a lesser extent. Power forwards are always highly coveted and his big second half with the Blue Jackets certainly will boost his market. He’s not necessarily the guy who takes a non-playoff team and makes them a playoff team but if Columbus doesn’t re-sign him, their postseason hopes for next season will take a hit.
You’re right in that the UFA class is not exactly one of the better ones we’ve seen in recent years. But there are a handful of impact players available plus some strong secondary pieces that will garner a lot of attention. There will be plenty of shop from for playoff and non-playoff teams alike, it’s just that there isn’t that one player who can singlehandedly change a team’s fortunes this time around.
Photo courtesy of Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images.
