The wait is finally over. The inaugural Nations Championship kicks off this weekend, bringing together the world’s 12 leading rugby nations in a brand-new global competition.
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The representatives of the Six Nations and The Rugby Championship go head-to-head, along with the two biggest forces from the Pacific Nations Cup. Round One alone delivers heavyweight clashes across three continents, with the Southern Series set to ignite the following three weeks throughout July.
The opening round begins with France travelling to the New Zealand for a clash with the All Blacks. Meanwhile, Ireland head to Australia to re-ignite their rivalry with the Wallabies, whilst England face the daunting task of taking on South Africa at Ellis Park.
Scotland begin their campaign away to an increasingly formidable Argentina, as Japan take on Italy, whilst Fiji and Wales battle it out in Cardiff. With six blockbuster fixtures to open the tournament, we’ve predicted how the opening weekend will unfold.
5 BOLD PREDICTIONS: 2026 NATIONS CHAMPIONSHIP – ROUND 1
South Africa to overpower England in Johannesburg
If there’s one fixture that screams statement victory, it’s a one-sided South African victory over England at Ellis Park. Rassie Erasmus named his Springboks match day squad yesterday, with England given ample notice to prepare for one of the most stacked 23-man ensembles imaginable in the world today.
Ox Nche, Malcolm Marx and Thomas du Toit start in the front row, with each man able to stake a claim to being the very best in their respective loose-head, hooker and tight-head positions. The pack continues with Eben Etzebeth, Ruan Nortje, Siya Kolisi, Pieter-Steph du Toit and Jasper Weise – my goodness, the Springboks are not here to mess around.
The full-strength green and gold continues throughout the back-line, albeit with Manie Libbok stepping in at fly half for Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu – which is a more than capeable replacement. The Springboks remain the benchmark for forward dominance and exhilarating back-line bursts, and few teams relish travelling to Johannesburg, where altitude, physicality and relentless pressure combine to create one of rugby’s toughest assignments.
England have endured a downward spiral of recent form that they will be desperate to recover from – yet we can only see one outcome in South Africa this Saturday. Steve Borthwick’s side sunk to a worst-ever Six Nations finish earlier in the year, and were shocked by a first time defeat to Italy. The final round epic against France was a resurgent England performance, in what plants a glimmer of hope for any visiting fans to Jo’burg. The Boks are the rightful favourites for the Nations Championship, and will want nothing less than to drop the hammer down on an England team desperate for form.
Prediction: South Africa by 20 points.
Ireland to edge Australia in Sydney
This feels like one of the weekend’s most difficult fixtures to call, but Ireland’s recent string of consistent Six Nations performances gives them the edge. Winning in Australia is never straightforward, particularly against a Wallabies side desperate to impress on home soil, ahead of their home-hosted Rugby World Cup in 2027. The stage is set for the master to face his former apprentice, as Joe Schmidt goes up against Andy Farrell, in a reunion for the former Ireland coaching team.
However, Caelan Doris will yet again play no part against Australia, as after missing the British & Irish Lions tour last Summer, the Ireland captain suffered a foot injury to curtail his Nations Championship. Ireland proved throughout the Six Nations that they can call upon their squad depth, and with Andrew Porter and Tommy O’Brien also side-lined, Farrell will need his supporting cast to step up once again.
Australia undoubtedly possess enough attacking talent to trouble any defence, and have proven their ability to win matches in the closing moments, thanks to a star-studded back-line. Ireland, meanwhile, have repeatedly shown they can absorb pressure before gradually taking control through territory, breakdown efficiency and an outstanding kicking game – this intriguing chess match sets the stage in Sydney, with this opening round contest expected to go down to the wire.
The Wallabies will enjoy their moments, especially with the Sydney crowd behind them, but Ireland’s experience in winning tight Test matches should ultimately prove decisive. It may not be spectacular, but expect another composed Irish performance to get their Nations Championship campaign off to the perfect start.
Prediction: Ireland by 2 points.
Wales to overcome the Flying Fijians in Cardiff
This may officially count as one of Fiji’s home fixtures, but with the match taking place in Cardiff, Wales will enjoy all the advantages normally associated with home Test rugby.
Fiji remain one of the most entertaining sides in the world and possess the ability to score from almost anywhere. Their offloading game and willingness to attack broken defensive lines make them dangerous opponents for any nation. However, such an all-action approach can also be the undoing of the Flying Fijians, with the gas tank emptied mid-way through the second half, which opens the door for Wales to score.
If Wales dominate the set-piece and limit Fiji’s transition opportunities, they should gradually take control through territory and discipline. Steve Tandy’s side are eager to re-live that winning feeling at the Principality Stadium, having ended their 2026 Six Nations campaign with the sweet taste of victory over Italy.
The visitors will almost certainly produce moments of brilliance, but Wales’ superior organisation and game management should outweigh Fiji’s flair over the course of the afternoon. With Tandy looking to make a positive first impression in Wales’ first crack at this new major competition, this feels like exactly the kind of fixture Wales simply have to win.
Prediction: Wales by 9 points.
New Zealand hold off France with last-ditch drama
France have everything required to win in New Zealand, yet we can see a late penalty or stroke of genius sealing a dramatic All Blacks win upon their debut at the One New Zealand Stadium. Les Bleus possess arguably the deepest squad in international rugby, combining immense forward power with some of the most dangerous attacking players on the planet. When they produce their best rugby, very few teams can live with them.
However, New Zealand remain formidable at home, and the latest Super Rugby season showcased how the Kiwi clubs are the premier force down in the Southern Hemisphere. It was an all-New Zealand top four to close out the play-offs, with the champions Hurricanes joined by the Chiefs, Crusaders and Blues.
The All Blacks have since unveiled a star-studded squad for the Nations Championship, headlined by new captain Ardie Savea, Jordie and Beauden Barrett, Damien McKenzie and incoming debutants and Super Rugby top try-scorers – Josh Moorby and Fehi Fineanganafo. After enduring the uncharacteristic highs and lows of the Scott Robertson roller-coaster, head coach Dave Rennie now takes over the All Blacks, with a deep squad of talent assembled for the opening round clash with Fabien Galthie’s men.
Also, France head down to New Zealand without their captain Antoine Dupont. Whilst the scrum half was never going to play against the All Blacks due to his Top 14 Final commitments with Toulouse, the news that France’s magic maestro will stay home due to injury, could well shake the psyche of the men in blue. We anticipate a tough, attritional battle with high-flying along the touchlines, before a late Beauden Barrett penalty strikes home the win, and bags the first victory with Dave Rennie at the helm.
Prediction: New Zealand by 1 point.
Argentina to defeat Scotland to close out Round One
Argentina have become one of the most difficult challenges in international rugby, and Scotland face a brutal opening assignment in Córdoba. Los Pumas have grown enormously over the past half decade, having claimed some immense scaps against the All Blacks, Wallabies and British & Irish Lions. Their forward pack is consistently physical, their defence has become increasingly organised, as Felipe Contepomi’s men look genuinely capable of beating any side on their day.
Scotland’s attacking game can trouble anyone, particularly when Finn Russell hits top gear when pulling the strings, however, Gregor Townsend’s side occasionally struggled to impose themselves against the biggest and most abrasive forward packs – a place that Argentina certainly fall into. Los Pumas are likely to target exactly that area, slowing possession and forcing Scotland into an arm wrestle, before kicking penalty after penalty through the posts as the visitors’ frustration proves costly.
Such a tactic was witnessed against Italy in their opening round defeat in the Six Nations, as the Azzurri ground out the result through sustained breakdown pressure that awarded a plethora of penalties. Scotland will undoubtedly create opportunities, but sustaining pressure for the full match in Argentina is another challenge entirely. A victory would give Los Pumas significant momentum heading into their clashes with Wales and England.
Prediction: Argentina by 8 points.
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