For Irish rugby supporters, the scars of the 2023 Rugby World Cup remain fresh.
Ireland arrived in France as the world’s No. 1-ranked side, Grand Slam champions, and tournament favourites after defeating South Africa, New Zealand and France within a remarkable 12-month period. Yet despite being arguably the strongest team in world rugby, Andy Farrell’s side once again fell at the quarter-final stage.
The frustration was not simply the defeat to New Zealand. It was the sense that the tournament’s structure had conspired against the best teams in the world.
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The 2023 Lesson
At the 2023 World Cup, the four strongest nations by some distance were Ireland, South Africa, France and New Zealand. Coincidentally, they were also the world’s top four ranked teams.
Yet all four found themselves on the same side of the knockout draw.
The reason was simple: the World Cup draw had been conducted in 2020, three years before the tournament. Rankings changed dramatically in that period, but the draw remained fixed.
As a result:
- Ireland and South Africa were drawn in the same pool.
- France and New Zealand were drawn in the same pool.
- Ireland faced New Zealand in a quarter-final.
- France faced South Africa in a quarter-final.
Two of the world’s best teams were guaranteed to be eliminated before the semi-finals. In reality, those quarter-finals were the true heavyweight contests of the tournament.
Meanwhile, the opposite side of the draw featured England, Argentina, Wales and Fiji. England and Argentina ultimately reached the semi-finals despite having endured inconsistent cycles leading into the tournament.
World Rugby acknowledged the imbalance and pledged to improve future tournament structures.
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Has 2027 Really Fixed the Problem?
The 2027 Rugby World Cup in Australia introduces a new 24-team format featuring six pools of four teams and, for the first time, a Round of 16.
On paper, it appears a more expansive and exciting tournament.
However, the draw has once again produced significant advantages for certain teams.
The bracket structure means some pool winners receive far easier routes than others.
Looking at the draw:
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Ireland have been placed in Pool D alongside:
- Ireland
- Scotland
- Uruguay
- Portugal
Scotland represent a significant hurdle, but Ireland will enter the tournament expecting to top the pool.
If they do, the path suddenly opens up.
Ireland’s Likely Route
Pool Stage
Ireland’s primary objective will be defeating Scotland and securing first place in Pool D.
Finishing top is crucial because of how the knockout bracket is structured.
Round of 16
The Pool D winner faces one of the tournament’s best third-placed teams.
While no knockout match can be taken lightly, this is theoretically one of the more favourable Round-of-16 assignments available.
